This is a well known fact that humans suck at estimations.
We always think that we can estimate how long something would take and when we try to do it — never comes out to be anywhere close.
The main reason is that we always take the happy path while estimating something, which is often not what happens in reality. Even if we try to factor in the complexities and hurdles, we end up being wrong by a big factor.
In reality, problems arise and there is no way to know about the problems before hand.
We are so bad at estimating that even a simple task of grocery shopping that we think will take 15 minutes end up taking an hour.
We’re not just a little bit wrong — we’re a lot wrong when it comes to estimations
How many times have you estimated something to finish in 6 months but it actually stretched out to be more than a year.
My previous project was expected to finish in 6 months but when it finally did 14 months were passed. We were wrong by 8 months. There was no way to predict the problems that we faced when we started with the task. Unforeseen circumstances makes it further difficult.
So… what’s the solution?
There is no solution to make your estimation 100% accurate. But we can definitely make them better.
Break the big thing into smaller things.
The smaller it is, the easier it become to estimate. You will still be wrong with your estimations but you will be a lot less wrong.
Instead of estimating a task as 30 hour, break it into smaller chunks and bring it down to 6-8 hours per chunk. That way your estimations will become better and more accurate.
Let me know your thoughts on estimations.